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The Good Judgment Project
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is a project "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of ''Superforecasting'' and of ''Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?''), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore.〔(【引用サイトリンク】Welcome to the Good Judgment ProjectTM )〕 It was a participant in the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) in the United States.〔(【引用サイトリンク】The Project )〕 Predictions are scored using Brier scores. The top forecasters in GJP are "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information."〔
==History==
The Good Judgment Project began in July 2011 in collaboration with IARPA-ACE. The first contest began in September 2011.〔〔
GJP was one of many entrants in the IARPA-ACE tournament, and has repeatedly emerged as the winner in the tournament.〔
Starting with the summer of 2013, GJP contestants had access to the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System.〔
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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